Tuesday, January 25, 2011

83rd Oscar Nominations





Best Picture:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

All kidding aside, that's a great bunch of nominees. I'd entirely forgotten about The Kids Are All Right, which is a rather odd nomination choice, but not a bad one (quick version: Lesbian couple has some kids via sperm donor and the kids want to meet their biological father, family based drama ensues, very good).
Honestly, this one is a little too close to call. A lot, and I mean a LOT of these films have both critical acclaim and box office take to beat the band, although if last year taught us anything, it's that box office don't mean shit to the academy. I'd honestly put a lot of stock in The King's Speech or The Social Network frankly, but not TOO much. And don't count Inception all the way out either.

Best Director:
Darren Aronofsky- Black Swan
David O. Russel- The Fighter
Tom Hooper- The King's Speech
David Fincher- The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen- True Grit

Again, good bunch of nominees, but Tom Hooper? Really? I mean, The King's Speech was good and all, but that was due to the actors, and the director didn't really add a whole hell of a lot. Coen's are up, both here and for Picture, to remind everyone how great they are, they won too recently (2007) and too big (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor) to win again.
Honestly, my money would be on Darren Aronofsky, since of the nominees he's got the most director based buzz and would be the most deserving win, though if Fincher takes it, expect a Best Picture for The Social Network.

Best Actor:
Javier Bardem- Biutiful
Jeff Bridges- True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
Colin Firth- The King's Speech
James Franco- 127 Hours

I really should make predictions on who's gonna get nominations, because this one fell down exactly, as I called it (except for Bardem but I left a slot open). Bridges is there because he was good enough to be there, but he won last year, he's not gonna win again. It's a 3 way toss up between Eisenberg, Firth and Franco; Franco deserves it the most, Eisenberg is the audience favorite, Firth is the Academy politics favorite, bet accordingly.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman- The Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman- Black Swan
Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine

Man they really pulled out all the stops in grabbing obscure movies for this nominations. I can't even remember hearing about Blue Valentine. It doesn't matter much, this one might as well already have Natalie Portman's name on it; She'll have to WORK to lose this one.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale- The Fighter
John Hawkes- Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner- The Town
Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right
Geoffery Rush- The King's Speech

Awww, and just when you thought the Academy had entirely forgotten The Town. What is Best Supporting Actor nomination, the Academy's equivalent of a pity fuck? This one comes down to Geoffery Rush and Christian Bale, but I have no idea which of them is gonna grab it. Honestly upon reflection, probably Bale, which will make the advertising for The Dark Knight Rises fun.

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams- The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter- The King's Speech
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit
Jacki Weaver- Animal Kingdom

HA suck it Universe, I TOLD you Hailee Steinfeld would grab a nomination. She's not gonna win, this one looks like it's already going to Melissa Leo, but it's nice to see here there. Almost nice enough to remove the sting of not seeing Barbra Hershey or Mila Kunis up for Black Swan. I have no idea what the hell Animal Kingdom is, nor do I care.

Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Since MOST of the big screenplays are in Adapted, this year it seems like Original is gonna be a pity Oscar for a film that's nominated for a bunch of other awards but is unlikely to grab any. With that in mind, I'd say it's probably gonna be The Kids Are All Right. Inception MIGHT be able to grab it, but I doubt it; It has all it's technical awards to keep it warm.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Toy Story 3 is adapted? Alright. This one's probably going to The Social Network, if only to give it it's obligatory Oscar, but if another one pulls it off, expect a bunch of upsets in the big ones.

Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Toy Story 3 will take it home NEXT!

Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Hey Sweden, how's that non-Girl With the Dragon Tattoo movie working out for you? Oh and I told you Dogtooth would make it up. Honestly, I've never seen Biutiful but it's the only one with a nomination in another category so it's probably gonna make it. No promises though; Having a nomination in Best Original Screenplay AND being the best movie of the year didn't stop Pan's Labyrinth from losing. Dogtooth has a fair amount of buzz, so if you want to shock your friends and bet on the odd one, go with that, just don't blame me if you lose.

Best Documentary Feature:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

I've only seen Inside Job of these nominees and I honestly expected Waiting For Superman to be up. Since it's not, expect Inside Job to take it home.



Speculating on the Shorts is mostly irrelevant cuz most people have never or will never see them; They mostly exist to give new filmmakers something awesome to put on their resume. Technical awards is a little wonky too, but expect Inception to grab a lot of them.

Alright, that it's for me. The awards are on Febuary 27th, so we'll find out then.

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