Thursday, February 21, 2013

2012 Oscar Predictions

Sorry this is so late, my laptop requires repair, so I'm writing this at the local library. Never let anyone tell you the library isn't needed.

Anyway, this is one of the most generic things I have to do all year (right up there with choosing my top 10), so to make it more interesting I'm going to add a new category to each of the BIG awards (IE non technical): Movies or people I think should have been nominated. So, because I have limited time, I'm gonna cut this short. Here are my predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:

Best Picture:
Winner: Lincoln
Upset: Silver Linings Playbook
My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Be Nominated: The Master, Moonrise Kingdom 

Yeah, I'm sticking with Lincoln, what about it? Yeah, Ebert predicted Argo is gonna grab it, but since Ben didn't get nominated for Director, I'm not feeling it. The last time a movie won without being nominated for Director was in 1990, so while it's not impossible, I tend to doubt it. I'm still predicting a Lincoln sweep. Also, people who have wondered aloud who the 10th nominee would be if they still had to have 10 nominees, instead of up to 10? It would have been The Master. Now you know.

Also, you may notice that I'm not saying Cloud Atlas should be nominated. While I of course believe it should be, I promised myself this wouldn't turn into one giant bitchfest about Cloud Atlas getting shut out (like I almost did last year with Drive). And I could turn it into a bitchfest, trust me. I could find nominations for it in EVERY category.

Best Director:
Winner: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Upset: Michael Haneke for Amour
My Pick: Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Be Nominated: Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom, Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master.

Noticing a pattern with Should Be Nominated? Yeah, expect that to continue. Anyway, I'm going out on a bit of a limb for Haneke, but I'm gonna stick by it. I don't think they'll have another chance to give it to him, so it might be an option. SLP is still probably the Picture upset, but it was poorly directed enough that I don't think it has a chance at Director.

Best Actor:
Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Upset: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
My Pick: Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Should Be Nominated: Jared Gilman for Moonrise Kingdom, Ben Affleck for Argo

Yeah, a pattern. Second easiest call of the night, since Joaquin's performance (while brilliant) is just a tiny bit too dark to really have a shot.

Best Actress:
Winner: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Upset: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
My Pick: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Should Be Nominated: Kara Hayward for Moonrise Kingdom

This is one of several categories that is incredibly close (even now I kind of want to stick Emmuanuelle Riva in for the upset) but that's my choice. And I promise not to try to edit this quickly if Riva wins.

Best Supporting Actor:
Winner: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Upset: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
My Pick: Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Should Be Nominated: Bruce Willis for Moonrise Kingdom, Paul Giamatti for Cosmopolis, Samuel L Jackson for Django Unchained, Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wilds, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained, Sam Rockwell for Seven Psychopaths

It's weird, I'm okay with whoever wins Best Supporting Actor, but I could populate an entire alternate list with people who I think should be nominated. Obviously the odd man out there is Sam Rockwell (and I will maintain till I die he should have been nominated for Moon) but after a second viewing, Seven Psychopaths has quite grown on me, and I'm starting to think it was overlooked in a lot of ways.

Best Supporting Actress:
Winner: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Upset: Sally Field for Lincoln
My Pick: Amy Adams for The Master
Should Be Nominated: Frances McDormand for Moonrise Kingdom

Well if Jacki Weaver can be nominated for SLP, why can't McDormand? She was in Moonrise more than Jacki was in SLP. Anyway, easiest call of the night and we all know it. Go Amy!

Best Original Screenplay:
Winner: Django Unchained
Upset: Moonrise Kingdom
My Pick: Moonrise Kingdom
Should Be Nominated: Seven Psychopaths, The Cabin in the Woods, The Master

Yeah, I said Cabin. Come and get me. Anyway, people have gone back and forth about Zero Dark Thirty or Amour, but I'm not feeling either of them, so I'm making my odd predictions and sticking by them.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: Lincoln
Upset: Silver Linings Playbook
My Pick: Argo
Should Be Nominated: Cosmopolis

This one is pretty close, so don't take my word as gospel, that's just what I'm feeling. And just to remind you, I really really liked Cosmopolis. And I don't care who knows it.

Best Animated Film:
Winner: Brave
Upset: ParaNorman
My Pick: ParaNorman

The fact that I think Brave is gonna win drives me fucking insane, but that's how the cookie crumbles. There are enough strong non-Pixar nominees to split the vote and give Brave the win (that's how Once wound up getting Best Original Song over Enchanted.) Also, Ratatouille beat Persepolis, which made me quite cynical.

Best Foreign Film:
Winner: Amour
Upset: Fuck You.

I'm sorry (there's no movie named Fuck You nominated for best foreign film) but there's no point in naming an upset. Amour is getting it. There is no question. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either completely crazy or incredibly brave. And either way, they're wrong.

Best Documentary:
Winner: How to Survive a Plague
Upset: The Gatekeepers

I've not seen any of the nominees so I have no stake, but Plague has the most buzz so, there you are. My commentary is probably gonna be limited from here on out, so more than one category might pass with minimal commentary from me.

Best Original Score:
Winner: Skyfall
Upset: Life of Pi
My Pick: Lincoln
Should Be Nominated: Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wilds, Cloud Atlas

Yup. A pattern. Also, I'm breaking my promise for the technical awards. Leave me alone.

Best Original Song:
Winner: Skyfall from Skyfall
Upset: Everybody Needs a Best Friend from Ted
My Pick: Skyfall from Skyfall

Let the sky fallllllllllllll. Adele is actually growing on me. Go figure.

Best Sound Editing:
Winner: Zero Dark Thirty
Upset: Skyfall
My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty 

I don't know a ridiculous amount about Sound Editing, so I'm not going to make suggestions for what should have been nominated for this, or Sound Mixing.

Best Sound Mixing:
Winner: Lincoln
Upset: Skyfall
My Pick: Lincoln

Given that I frequently couldn't hear the actors over the music in Les Mis, I really don't think it should be here, but what do I know?

Best Production Design:
Winner: Lincoln
Upset: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
My Pick: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should Be Nominated: Cloud Atlas, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom

Les Miserables' production design was terribly generic and rather small, so I don't see why it's here.

Best Cinematography:
Winner: Life of Pi
Upset: Skyfall
My Pick: Skyfall
Should Be Nominated: Moonrise Kingdom, The Dark Knight Rises

Well TDKR was really well shot. Shut up.

Best Makeup:
Winner: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Upset: Hitchcock
My Pick: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Should Be Nominated: Cloud Atlas

This is kind of a bullshit category this year, but what are you gonna do.

Best Costuming:
Winner: Lincoln
Upset: Anna Karenina
My Pick: Lincoln
Should Be Nominated: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Who the fuck let Mirror Mirror in here? I'm serious, who liked that movie enough to get it a nomination? I have not met a single person who liked it?

Best Film Editing:
Winner: Zero Dark Thirty
Upset: Argo
My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Be Nominated: Cloud Atlas, Cosmopolis, Moonrise Kingdom 

The fuck. Is Silver Linings Playbook. Doing here? I'm fucking serious, pretty much every movie nominated for every other award had better or more interesting Editing. Fuck, Cloud Atlas had to cut between 6 different stories in 6 different time periods, with 6 different GENRES! What did SLP do?

Best Visual Effects:
Winner: Life of Pi
Upset: The Avengers
My Pick: The Avengers
Should Be Nominated: Cloud Atlas

Well Pi had the tiger and it looked very pretty. The Hulk was the most impressive visual effect of the year though. Oh and Disney? Stop sticking "Marvel's" in front of everything you make under the Marvel umbrella. Makes them look like products rather than movies

Anyway. The awards are on the 24th, I shall be over at friend's house and drunkenly live tweeting the whole thing. See then how ridiculously wrong I probably was.


  1. 'The Master' should have been nominated for cinematography as well. Also, I think Riva is going to take it.

  2. go ahead and bitch; "cloud Atlas was my favorite, too.

  3. Just on a minor note re: The Avengers.

    While I'm normally all in favor of busting Disney's ass for the marketing, in this case I think it had a different motivation. Mainly making sure their film didn't get mixed up with the infamous 1998 Ralph Fiennes-Uma Thurman movie version of the British TV series of the same name.

    It's a small comfort that ensures you're getting a massive crossover fic on PCP and steroids as opposed to Sean Connery in a teddy bear costume.